Mosquito
Population Growth &
the West Nile
Virus
by Tyneka Harrington
Math, JHS139
Introduction: The
West Nile Virus has been a problem for the people of New York City and the
surrounding areas for the past 2 years.
It is possible that this problem will persist when warm weather returns
in the spring of 2001, since spring is breeding time for the mosquitoes that
are known to carry the virus.
In the warm weather seasons of 1999 and 2000, the chief
preventive action against the virus has been the use of chemical sprays. Many individuals and organizations have
opposed the use of these sprays due to the potential health risks to citizens
who live and work in areas that are affected.
However, this is the counteraction that government officials have agreed
to as the most effective means of stopping the spread of the virus. Are there other means of controlling the
spread of the virus?
Task: You are the
Commissioner of Health in New York City.
Your task is to curb the spread of what has become known as the West
Nile Virus and to prevent its rise to epidemic proportions in the area. You
must discover the best way to keep your public safe from the health threats
associated with the virus, while keeping the tax payers happy with the costs
related to controlling the disease. In
order to do this, you must research and calculate the potential for mosquito
population growth in NYC. You are well
aware of the protests that have arisen from the use of chemical sprays to
counter the disease. You are also very
concerned about the potential health risks associated with the spray and are
determined to find alternative solutions.
However, you agree with current policy makers that the best solution is
to curb mosquito population growth before they have the potential to spread the
virus. The city is depending on your
investigative skills to develop an effective and efficient solution, in light
of the current evidence. Good Luck!
Process: As Commissioner of
Public Health, you must use the resources below to:
1) Investigate the natural patterns of mosquito reproduction
and population growth. Identify 5
factors that influence mosquito population growth.
2) How long does a mosquito survive? How many offspring can one female mosquito produce in one mating?
How many times can a mosquito reproduce during its lifespan?
3) In a given area, suppose one female mosquito deposits 150
eggs during a cycle of reproduction every 10 days
a)
In one generation, how
many offspring will she produce?
b)
Create a table showing
how many offspring will be produced in each of 3 subsequent generations.
|
Generation |
Offspring |
|
1 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
3 |
|
c)
Write an equation for
the number of offspring, which will be represented by the letter o, in a given
generation of mosquitoes, which will be represented by the letter n.
d)
What is the total number
of offspring in all three generations?
4) Based on your equation, how many mosquitoes will have the
potential of carrying the virus after 5 successive generations?
5) Write a report to policymakers in whom you detail your
findings and suggestions for an alternative to dealing with the West Nile
Virus. Include the following
information:
a)
your information on the
rate of mosquito population growth
b)
the factors that
influence mosquito population growth
c)
suggestions for three
alternative plans of action to curb the spread of the West Nile Virus based on
your research
d)
a review of the
solutions you have suggested and your selection of the most feasible and cost effective solution
e)
explain and justify your
selection.
Resources:
Websites
www.colostate.edu/Depts/IPM/natparks/mosquito.html
www.uri.edu/research/eee/mosquito.html
www.pestweb.com/insects/links.cfm?cat_code=0200&cat_desc=Mosquitoes
Encyclopedias
Evaluation: Your evaluation will be based on the quality of your
report.
Use the following
rubric to guide your writing:
|
|
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Calculations |
Calculations are correct and show
an understanding of exponential growth |
Calculations are correct, but
explanations are unclear Calculations are incorrect, but
explanations show an understanding of exponential growth |
Limited understanding of
exponential growth and mathematical processes |
Incomplete, irrelevant, or
incoherent response |
|
Factors
Affecting Population Growth |
Identifies at least 5 factors and
able to explain their relevance |
Identifies 5 factors and
explanations are unclear Identifies 4 factors and
explanations are clear & relevant |
Identifies less than 4 factors an
explanations are clear & relevant |
Incomplete, irrelevant, or
incoherent response |
|
Alternative
Action Plans |
Suggests 3 alternative plans of
action and able to explain why they are viable |
Suggests 3 alternative plans of
action, however explanations are unclear |
Suggests less than three
alternatives Includes no explanation of the
alternatives suggested |
|
|
Grammar& Mechanics |
No errors occur in capitalization
and punctuation Grammar is essentially correct All or nearly all spelling is
correct |
Few errors in capitalization and
punctuation Few errors in grammar, but writing
still makes sense Most words are spelled correctly |
Many errors in capitalization and
punctuation Grammar is mostly incorrect and
makes little sense Many words are spelled incorrectly |
Most of the report has punctuation
and capitalization errors Most words are spelled incorrectly |
Conclusion:
You have researched the factors contributing to mosquito
population growth and their potential effects on the spread of the West Nile
Virus. Given that information, you have
designed an alternative strategy to combating the spread of the virus. The work you have done is only some of the
research, calculation and organization that contribute to developing public
policies. How likely do you think it
would be that the alternative you have chosen would be adopted as public
policy?