Avian Influenza Virus

Preventing the Spread of “The Bird Flu”:

A Vaccination Program

Mr. Henry Encarnacion

8^th Grade Algebra

Frederick Douglass Academy

Introduction:

Influenza viruses that infect birds are called “avian influenza viruses.” Avian influenza viruses do not usually infect humans; however, several instances of human infections and outbreaks of avian influenza have been reported since 1997 (Center for Disease Control.) As of today in the world there have been 122 cases of humans having contracted this avian flu virus….66 of them have died.

Task:

There has been a Bird Flu spotting in Central Park! About 100 pigeons have been found to have the strain of Avian Influenza. As a FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) agent, you have been chosen to find a way to stop the spread of this disease through your mathematical reasoning! Let’s stop the disease with vaccinations before the virus spreads!

Working with a graph, you will need to determine how many flu shots need to be ordered so that a shortage does not occur. What policy would you put in place so that this disease will not rapidly spread from person to person because people have gotten a vaccination and because the government has an ample supply of the vaccine.

Your teacher will assign you to a group of five. In each group, each of you will have a very important role to play. Each group will have:

Group leader-keep everybody and task and make sure that the group does the best work possible to work together to solve the problem

Researcher-will make sure that all of the materials in the Resource section (see below) are included in the overall findings and presentation

Presenter-oral spokesperson for the group when giving the presentation to the entire class

Recorder-work on how the graph should look based on the findings of the group

Letter Writer-responsible for writing and mailing the letter to President Bush including the graph as an enclosure

You will draw a graph on chart paper presenting your findings. You will give an oral presentation as a group to the entire class explaining how you arrived at your findings. Based on your findings you will then write a letter to President Bush telling him of your recommendations as to how many flu vaccines he should order based on your calculations.

Process:

Use the following links to help you reinforce your knowledge of the PPA. Remember that you will have to relate the given scenario to the real world PPA

1. You are to use the six-step Public Policy Analyst (PPA) to:

2. Complete the six steps of the PPA by doing the worksheets which are given in the following links as you complete the steps of the PPA:

· Worksheet 1

· Worksheet 2

· Worksheet 3

· Worksheet 4

· Worksheet 5

· Worksheet 6

3. Complete the Math Investigation worksheet that your teacher gives you.

Resources

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/keyfacts.htm

http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/

http://pandemicflu.gov/

http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/influenza_vaccines.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20060426/hl_hsn/computerspredictbirdflupandemicscourse

Evaluation

GRADE:	1	2	3	4
Oral Presentation	no knowledge of the Avian Flu data to support the proposed vaccination program.	little knowledge of the Avian Flu and presents several sources of data in a logical format to support the proposed vaccination program .	acceptable amount of knowledge on the Avian Flu-presents several sources of data in a logical and organized format to support the proposed vaccination program.	superior knowledge of the uses of the Avian Flu presents an exceptional amount of data to support the proposed vaccination program.
Research	little support the proposed vaccination program	Not enough information to support the proposed vaccination program	Lots of information that support the proposed vaccination program	all information support the proposed vaccination program
Worksheet	Incomplete -	Complete with only a little information	complete with a some information	-complete with a lot of information

Standards

Standard 1-Mathematical Analysis

Students will use mathematical analysis, scientific inquiry, and engineering design, as appropriate, to pose questions, seek answers and develop solutions

Standard 3-Number Sense & Numeration

Students will: understand mathematics and become mathematically confident by communicating and reasoning mathematically, by applying mathematics in real-world settings, and by solving problems through the integrated study of number systems, geometry, algebra, data analysis, probability, and trigonometry

English Language Arts Standards

E1 Reading

E1c- Read and comprehend informational materials.

E2 Writing

E2a- Produce a report of information.

Conclusion

When you have completed the Public Policy Analyst WebQuest you will have learned how to apply your mathematical skills to solving real world problems. You also have learned the six steps of the Public Policy Analyst. You have also taken your findings and presented them not only to your fellow classmates but also to the President of the United States. Who knows…maybe you will have saved thousands of lives.